Hormuz Supply Risk: A Framework for Oil and Inflation
Physical flows, inventories and shut-in production provide a sturdier way to assess Hormuz risk than short-lived price headlines.
Research notebook
Markets
Price action, market structure, and what moved across the tape.
Published analysis
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A Framework for Dollar Weakness, High Yields and Gold
High long-term yields, a softer dollar and record-area gold can coexist when investors distinguish policy rates from fiscal, inflation and duration risk.
Alibaba's HK$80 Billion AI Funding Plan Comes With Dilution
The share sale gives Alibaba more capital for full-stack AI and infrastructure. The market's next question is whether that spending produces per-share value faster than dilution absorbs it.
The GLP-1 Market's Next Test Is Adoption, Access and Safety
Oral treatment has shifted the obesity-drug debate from clinical possibility toward commercial execution: prescriptions, persistence, payer access, manufacturing and safe distribution.