The U.S. Energy Information Administration's August outlook estimated that petroleum flows through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 4.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, down from 21.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, and that 5.5 million barrels per day of production was shut in during July. Its weekly table listed U.S. commercial crude stocks of 424.410 million barrels on August 7 and 428.815 million on August 14.S1S2
The physical constraint
Investors should separate vessel flows, production, and inventories from changing probabilities around diplomacy, enforcement, and shipping disruption.
Inventories are the shock absorber
Inventory buffers could cushion a disruption, but location, product mix, refinery needs, and transport constraints may shape how much protection they offer.
Why the inflation link is nonlinear
A brief price spike may fade before broad pass-through develops, while a sustained constraint could affect fuel, freight, petrochemicals, and inflation expectations.
The first rejection
A down day should not prove supply risk resolved, and a rally should not prove a lasting shortage. Physical availability and scenario probabilities may move prices through different channels.
What to watch next
Readers should follow verified vessel movements, export volumes, inventory changes, refinery use, official sanctions details, and insurance or freight costs.
Evidence ledger